Post-poll surveys predict DMK exit in Tamil Nadu

Friday, the 13th could mark the end of Karunanidhi’s rule in Tamil Nadu, if the outcome of most post-poll surveys are anything to go by. While one TV channel predicted an AIADMK sweep, two others saw a photo finish.

The CNN IBN-The Week post-poll survey, conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), shows that the backlash against corruption is only a nose ahead of approval of governance.
It said the AIADMK alliance would bag anywhere between 120 and 132 seats in the 234-member Assembly, pipping the DMK front by an 18-vote margin. The Asianet News C-fore survey too predicted along the same lines — 117-132 seats for the AIADMK front and 102-117 for the DMK.
NewsX alone stuck its neck out enough to say that the AIADMK front would sweep the polls with 168-176 seats, leaving just 54-62 seats for the DMK alliance.
The Headlines Today-ORG survey alone showed a swing from the tide. It gave the DMK-led alliance 115-130 seats and the opposition 105-120 seats.
The CNN IBN-The Week survey also claimed that Jayalalithaa’s popularity ratings were five per cent more than that of Karunanidhi, but ironically, most voters said they were satisfied with the present government.
The Asianet News-C fore poll said 41 per cent of the respondents favoured M Karunanidhi as the chief minister, while 39 per cent went for the AIADMK chief. But Jayalalithaa was predicted to be on the comeback trail — 41 per cent of the respondents preferring the AIADMK front on the seat of power and 39 per cent favouring the DMK alliance.
The CNN IBN-The Week survey predicted that the AIADMK would see a big jump of six per cent over its last performance in 2006. With only 44 per cent of the votes in its kitty, it shows the DMK will suffer a downswing of one per cent.
The poll showed that poorer sections were giving the Jayalalithaa the edge. While 49 per cent of the lower middle-class favours the AIADMK, the poor have come out more openly in support of the party chief with a 54 per cent vote. However, there are takeaways for Karunanidhi too. Sixty-eight per cent of the respondents gave his party’s governance the thumbs up as against 65 per cent for the AIADMK.
According to the Headllines Today-ORG survey, however, shows that 50 per cent of the voters went for the DMK front, edging out the AIADMK’s votebank by two per cent.
In terms of vote share, the survey shows a three per cent swing in DMK’s favour as compared to the 2006 Assembly elections. The party is expected to get 48 per cent votes. The swing, as per the projections, will be seven per cent for the AIADMK and its allies. But, at 47 per cent, that will still be one per cent short of DMK’s share.