Battlelines drawn, DMK, AIADMK speed up seat talks

With alliances more or less firmed up, battlelines are being drawn in what could be one of the toughest assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, slated for May. While the DMK and the Congress are firmly together, the VCK and the Muslim League will team up with the DMK. On the AIADMK front, the MDMK and Left parties have already conveyed to J Jayalalithaa their plans to remain with her party. The PMK and the DMDK are likely to announce allegiance to the DMK and AIADMK respectively notwithstanding the subtle power dynamics at play.

Alliances are yet to be publicly firmed up and seats shared out. The AIADMK-led front's main poll plank could be the spectrum controversy, corruption, rising costs and the recent killings of fishermen allegedly by the Sri Lankan Navy. But corruption has never been the sole factor to determine poll outcome in the past except in the 1996 elections when the AIADMK was voted out of power following allegations of corruption in Jayalalithaa's first tenure. However, with the opposition focussed sharply on spectrum issue, it could well add heat to a high-decibel campaign.

The alliance arithmetic, caste factor and issues that dominate the forthcoming polls have political circles guessing though. "The problem is that arithmetic does not work in these elections. If arithmetic worked, Vijayakanth, whose DMDK contested on its own in the 2006 assembly elections would not have won in the Vanniyar-dominated Vriddhachalam assembly constituency, a PMK stronghold," said journalist and Tamil writer, Gnani.

The two Dravidian majors are banking on the regional clout that their smaller partners would bring with them.

"We are confident that K Krishnasamy's Puthiya Tamizhagam (PT) will add to our strength," said a senior AIADMK leader, analysing the party's strength in the various regions. "The PT will help us garner a sizeable portion of dalit votes," he said.

The ground reality could be far different, point out DMK leaders. "The AIADMK is considered to be sympathetic to the Thevars who dominate the southern districts. So dalits will be upset with the AIADMK-PT alliance," noted a DMK leader. An interesting battle is on the cards in the southern districts, long considered an AIADMK bastion. The DMK made considerable gains in the 2006 assembly polls and the 2009 Lok Sabha elections in the south which were attributed to the growing influence of DMK's south organising secretary MK Alagiri.

In central Tamil Nadu, Vijayakanth's DMDK could make a difference to the party with which it teams up. The AIADMK is on surer grounds in the west where it is confident of winning most of the 40 constituencies in the region. "But a decision by the Kongu Nadu Munnetra Kazhagam (KNMK) could prove crucial. They are demanding 12 seats from us. It remains to be seen if the DMK can satisfy them," said the AIADMK leader. The DMK has been consistently performing poorly in the region and hopes to clinch a deal with the Kongu party whose clout in the western belt was proved in the last parliamentary election when it contested 12 constituencies and polled 5.79 lakh votes, about 1.91% votes polled in the state.

If the PMK joins the DMK front, it could lend huge strength to the DMK-led alliance in Vanniyar-dominated northern districts. For both the fronts winning the 30-odd seats in Chennai and surroundings would be a prestige issue. "The spectrum scam is perceived to have maximum impact in urban areas and could hit the DMK badly," claimed an AIADMK leader, pointing out that in the last Lok Sabha elections, the AIADMK stormed the DMK's city bastion winning the south Chennai constituency and losing the north and central constituencies by only 19,153 and 33,454 votes respectively.

But conjectures and predictions could go awry if the Election Commission fails to check bribing of voters. "There are reports of a party already distributing money to voters. The EC should take action," said convenor of the recently-floated Electoral Integrity Forum, M G Devasahayam.