America Is Getting Hustled

Yes, diplomatic talks are good. But the Iranians have conceded virtually nothing of value, while Obama has conceded a fair bit. And, Reihan Salam argues, Russia is stringing the U.S. along.

After the revelation of Iran's previously secret uranium-enrichment near facility Qom, home to the country's clerical elite, Barack Obama, flanked by Gordon Brown and the hawkish Nicolas Sarkozy, eloquently condemned Iran for its contemptuous disregard for international law. The visuals were powerful: while the Bush administration had been condemned for its unilateralism, here was President Obama standing with the leaders of America's allies, all of them offering a single forceful message. It didn't hurt that Obama towered over the perpetually hunched-over British prime minister and the charmingly elfin French president. This display followed Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's odd statement earlier that week that "sanctions are seldom productive but they are sometimes inevitable," a sign that Russia might be willing to exert pressure on Iran—long one of the most enthusiastic consumers of high-tech Russian military hardware.

While the Iranians will hand over low-enriched nuclear fuel they've said they have, they're not about to give up the nuclear they haven't said they have. Get it?

This week, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has agreed to transfer most of his country's acknowledged low-enriched nuclear fuel out of the country for purposes of further enrichment, and Iranian negotiators have signaled a willingness to engage in further talks. All of this sounds like good news, and it is. Unfortunately, it is also extremely good news for Iran and Ahmadinejad, who has managed to buy still more time to build his weapons program.

There's little doubt that the Qom facility is just part of a vast network of secret nuclear facilities that the Iranians have been building for years to evade inspectors. It solves the "puzzle" of why the Iranians haven't been able to account for large amounts of uranium from one of their mines. Imagine a conversation with Iranian nuclear officials offer the missing uranium: "Oh, well, we use it as part of a traditional Persian headache remedy." While international inspectors sought full access to Iran's Potemkin nuclear program, the Iranians, having learned the lesson of Iraq's Osirak facility, destroyed by an Israeli air attack in 1981, have created a hardened weapons program that will be difficult if not impossible to destroy.

• The Daily Beast’s Michael Adler: Exclusive Iran Nuke Deal Details

• The Daily Beast’s Reza Aslan: Naïve Obama Gets Iran Results

• Gary Sick: Real Progress with Iran So while the Iranians will hand over low-enriched nuclear fuel they've said they have, they're not about to give up the nuclear they haven't said they have. Get it? As for the further talks, the United States wants to talk about ending Iran's nuclear program. The Iranians want to talk about… virtually everything else, ranging from "creating a world filled with spirituality, friendship, prosperity, wellness, and security" to "the management and fair use of space" to, yes, abolishing all the world's nuclear weapons. Suffice it to say, this is a fairly broad agenda. Indeed, it is so broad that one wonders if the Iranians are taking this process as seriously as we'd like to think.

The rumor is that Iran "revealed" the Qom facility after discovering the Western intelligence officials had learned of its existence, and that Sarkozy was planning on making a dramatic announcement at the United Nations General Assembly. But of course the Iranians didn't invite U.N. inspectors to drop by immediately after making the announcement. When Iranian nuclear officials say that they need time—weeks if not months—before inspectors can arrive, their motivation could be the fastidiousness of gracious hosts, e.g., they want to be sure the pillows are fluffed and that various Iranian delicacies are seasoned to perfection. Or they could be hard at work scrubbing the enrichment facility of any incriminating evidence that goes beyond the massively incriminating evidence that they built it in the first place. One gets the uncomfortable sense that the United States is getting hustled, just as we were hustled by North Korea.

Back when we started negotiating with the North Koreans over their nuclear program, we were convinced that continued discussions were vitally important, and that we could deal with temper tantrums and half-hearted non-concessions. Now, of course, the North Koreans have nuclear weapons, and they are arguably more dangerous than ever.